THE LATEST COMMITMENTS OF TRADERS (COT) DATA

Issue date: June 26 2015. Data cut-off date: June 23 2015

ABOUT US CallComputeComm Systems Inc (CCCS Inc) is a federally incorporated Canadian company, located in Stratford, Ontario.
It has been producing online Commitments of Traders information for professional traders for over a decade.
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WHAT IS COT DATA? Commitments of Traders (COT) data, recorded by the CFTC, shows the quantity of contracts, of any delivery date, that are bought (long) or sold (short) by two groups of traders. The first group are large "Commercial Traders" and the second group are large "Non-Commercial Traders", or Speculators. These two groups are called the "BIG DOGS" as their trading activity determines the market price.
Commercial Traders are those businesses that intend to deliver or receive the commodity, Farmers intend to sell their wheat. A refinery intends to buy oil. Speculators plan to buy or sell the commodity before the delivery date is reached, in order to try and make a profit. Large means they are buying/selling a significant number of contracts. Data for a third group, called "Small Traders" is determined by subtracting the sum of the orders of the Commercials and Speculators from the total Open Interest.
Because traders within any group may be both long and short on quantities of contracts a significant parameter that often impacts price, is the NET (long minus short) quantity for commercials and speculators. A COT INDEX is derived from the net value - but more on that later. just scroll down
WHAT OUR SITE DOES There is often a strong correlation between the commercial/speculator COT INDEX trend and commodity price which can be used to a trader's advantage. We are the only site which shows this correlation while supplying tables and charts that trend 18 months of COT data in a user-friendly presentation of over 60 commodities. YOUR WEEKLY REPORT Subscribe by clicking on the green SIGN UP link to access your Weekly Report. It shows the latest COT data over a period of 18 months in both table and chart form. It provides for BIG DOG Trader categories (Commercial and Speculator traders) as well as the Small Trader category:
  • long and short contract quantity values
  • net (long-short) value
  • change from the previous week
  • COT INDEX and COT INDEX trend
  • open interest
  • market price
Trend and extreme positions are identified in order to provide profit opportunities.
A free visitors section is available where recent COT information is provided in the identical format of the subscription site to permit users to try the site before subscribing. A link to the visitor's section is provided near the bottom of this page.
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TRADING FUTURES IS COMPLICATED - LET US SIMPLIFY IT FOR YOU

Exactly, who are the BIG DOGS and what is the COT INDEX all about?

THE BIG DOGS are those traders who purchase large volumes of contracts and whose activity drive market price.

They are either Commercial Traders who intend to deliver or take delivery of the Commodity or Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators) who will dispose of their contracts, by offsetting them with an identical buy or sell contract, before delivery comes due with the intent of making a profit or avoiding a larger loss.

The separate reporting of these two groups is unique to commodity trading and does not exist in the normal stock market. Some describe its use as legal insider trading. Knowledge of whether the Speculators are driving price, or are running for the hills, is of great value to the savvy trader. This is the only website where their actions are made clear, particularly through the value and trend of the Commercial and Speculator COT INDEX.

More information on the COT INDEX is provided below.
THE COT INDEX can apply to the Commercial, Non-Commercial (Speculator) and Small Traders. This is the only website that provides all three values and trends every week.

However, first of all we need to explain the "Net Contract Value". A commercial trader may buy 1000 contracts (of a specified size) of Corn, another commercial trader may sell 800 contracts of Corn, even perhaps with a different delivery date. The "Net Contract Value" of these two transactions is (1000 minus 800) which is equal to 200. Apply this calculation to all the Corn contracts for the week and you have the final commercial trader "Net Contract Value" number. History shows that changes in the "Net Contract Value" may correlate with changes in price.

The COT INDEX is derived from the "Net Contract Value" in the following manner: If, looking back over each week of the previous 18 months this weeks commercial "Net Contract Value" exceeds all previous values, the COT INDEX is assigned a value of 100%. 100% means that we have a record value for the sale of commercial net (long minus short) contracts. If the "Net contract value" is less than all previous 18 month values, the commercial COT INDEX is assigned a 0% value. All other COT INDEX values are assigned proportionally, e.g this weeks "Net Contract Value" that is half way between the previous min and max value, is assigned a value of 50%.

A common mistake is to believe that once the index hits 100% there will immediately be a reversal. If a trend is strong the following week may result in an even larger "Net Contract Value", thereby creating a new 100% , with all previous values adjusted proportionally.When 100% is reached, it simply means that it is the largest value in the past 18 months, therefore one might expect a reversal.
For an explanation: mouseover the hotspots (Do not click)

Cotton #2 - Sept 23 2014

The Big Dog Commercial Index is the orange lineThe Big Dog Speculator Index is the green line.  Note how it is a mirror image of the Commercial Index. The COT Index of Small Traders is the blue line.The Price is expressed as a percentage of the maximum value in the last 18 month and is recorded weekly (tuesday).The Big Dog Speculator COT Index peaked at 100% just after the price started dropping, a sign that a reversal willl take placeThe  Big Dog Commercials are buying as and the Speculators selling as fast as they can, driving the price down. This week's trend is still strong, reaching 100% and 0% respectively and should continue for another week. Watch for a reversalThe  Big Dog Commercials are buying and the Speculators selling as fast as they can, driving the price down . This week's trend is still strong, reaching 100% and 0% respectively and should continue for another week. Watch for a reversalThe Commercials and Speculators COT Index crossover and continue their trend to 100% and 0% respectively. This is not the time to go long.The Commercials are at 0% . When a reversal takes place prices will drop up as the Speculators run for the hills..  So get ready to go long with the Commercials. Note that the Speculators are at 100%.4 means that this is the Tuesday of 4th week of the current year.  The dates actual are provided in a supporting table from which the chart is linked. The date is shown as the number of weeks from Jan first of the current year. The actual date is provided in a table from which the chart is linked. The Speculator and Commercial COT Index  have crossed at about 50% , each one showing a rapid change. Price is likely to fall as the Speculators are eliminating their positions as quickly as possible. Watch for a slow down in their selling.

OK, that's for Cotton! How about the COT story for a Currency?

Eurofx - Oct 07 2014


Here's the Euro, it shows similar characteristics for the Commercial and Speculator COT INDEX values. Check for yourself.

Whether you are a professional futures trader or simply trade binary options,
acting on the BIG DOG COT INDEX trends and values can produce better results.

  • A trending increase in the Speculator's COT INDEX with a decreasing Commercial COT INDEX results in a price increase most of the time. Buy long not short
  • A trending decrease in the Speculator's COT INDEX with an increasing Commercial COT INDEX results in a price decrease most of the time. Buy short not long
  • When the Speculator's COT INDEX is at 100%, the Commercial COT INDEX is usually near 0%
    or vice versa. WATCH for a COT INDEX and price reversal. It may not be immediate depending on the trend strength. Follow the speculators when the trend is strong.
  • If the Speculator's COT INDEX crosses the Commercial COT INDEX at about 50%, both trending strongly, the price will likely follow the direction of the Speculator's COT INDEX.

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